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Future of the Brazilian real

GringoLouco

Hey guys,

My plan is to work in Europe for a while, with my Brazilian girlfriend. After a number of years, it is very possible that we move to Brazil and buy a property there.

But what we can afford will depend on the exchange rate at that moment. With 1 euro being 5 reais at this point, I plan to buy an apartment for about 1 million reais a vista in 2028. If the asking price is 1.4 million reais with a 20 year mortgage plan, I think it is very doable to buy such a place for 1 million a vista.

I really wonder if the real will stay as it is today, or go even lower, or evolve back to where it was 10 years ago before the crisis. 1 euro was 2.5 reais for a number of years, but that would crush my purchasing power and make it more interesting to stay in Europe.

What is your predication for the future of the exchange rate? I think that elections will play a big part in it

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abthree

A ten-year time horizon for both the real and the euro (will the euro still exist in ten years?) seems speculative in the extreme,  but here goes.
Brazilian inflation is currently running at between 4 and 5%, while the economy is still in recession - not good, but not as bad as the current exchange rates make it appear.  The "flight to value" by international investors is still going on, and the US securities markets are booming, while the Brazilian Government is basically inert, all of which is pumping up the euro and the dollar at the expense of the real.
The primary focus of the new government that takes power after the upcoming elections must be to get the economy moving again, while containing inflation.  They'll try hard to keep the real from appreciating to R$2,50 to the euro again:  that could abort the recovery.  I would expect them to aim for a rate between 3 and 4, and to fight like hell to keep it in that band.
There's enough slack in the Brazilian economy that it could probably grow at 3-4% a year for a while if the right decisions are made, without igniting too much additional inflation.  That's a lot of PPP (Purchase Price Parity) over 10 years!  Still, if you keep your earnings growing in the interim, and save and invest in a way that your investment returns equal or exceed the growth rate here, your nest egg should serve you in good stead when you're ready to make your move.

GringoLouco

Thanks abthree

From what I've read about currency forecast, analysts did not have confidence in the real because of the participants in previous elections. I'm not sure what the current retirement age in Brazil is, but it's pretty young and it was described as one of the reasons for the decline in value/confidence.

If a right wing politician like Bolsonaro wins, which I think is good for the country, I guess the real will get stronger.

It's a very complicated topic to debate but I know that "the West" does not want the emerging economies like Brazil - Russia - India - China - South Africa (BRICS nations) to succeed and gain more influence on a global scale.

Do you consider Brazil an emerging economy with a prosperous future?
If one day quality education becomes affordable for the middle class, that would make my choice to come over much easier. My girlfriend says that Brazil was fine before the global crisis in 2008. But after that when the real quickly went up from 2.5 per euro to 4.1 and even weaker, businesses got in trouble, people lost jobs and the amount of homeless people increased rapidly.

I am very curious to see what will happen in the future

ohanasurf

Brazil is the country of the future and it always will be........

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sprealestatebroker

2028 is way far fetched. 
The market already bottomed out , so at least in São Paulo. 
Builders re-started to build, an indicator demand is up, and inventories are drying up.
Besides, floating exchange currency rates makes any long term plan a complete crapshoot. 

The time to buy is now, at least from the buyer's standpoint. Haggling a deal, leveraging on the exchange rates. Once the economy is on the way to complete recovery,  with interest rates dropping as they are right now, expect demand to soar.