九色视频

An interesting article. Here鈥檚 another point of view, written pre-election, focussing more on the economic growth - or lack thereof . .

[link under review]

Some interesting graphs in the article too.

Slowest pre-election economic growth in more than two decades: How come?

MAY 9, 2025 12:47 PM PHT

JC PUNONGBAYAN

from Rappler.

On May 8, a few days before the midterm polls, the government released the latest statistics on the economy鈥檚 output. For the first quarter of 2025, production, which is measured by GDP or gross domestic product, grew by just 5.4%.

This means the economy still grew compared to the same period last year. The government called this 鈥渟teady growth鈥� and a 鈥渕easured start鈥� for 2025. But the more accurate description is that it鈥檚 disappointingly slow.

Forecasters鈥� median projection was 5.8%. And with the government鈥檚 own growth target of 6-8% for this year, growth will have to be over 6% in the last three quarters of 2025. In other words, chances are slim that the government will meet its own (already reduced) growth target.

More to the point, 2025 is an election year, and growth supposedly bumps up in the run-up to elections, what with the avalanche of campaign spending and infrastructure spending that should be done before the election ban. There鈥檚 also the usual exercise of vote-buying, which makes sure money finds its way to the hands of voters, increasing their purchasing power momentarily.

But Figure 1 below shows that 2025 gave us the lowest pre-election growth rate in more than two decades, or since the 2004 presidential elections that put back in power former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Made with Flourish

Figure 1.

My sense is that the disappointing pre-election growth figures are a continuing sign of the fact that we are still reeling from the permanent scars wrought by the pandemic.

Figure 2 below shows that since 2023 we鈥檙e more likely to experience growth between 5% and 6%, whereas before the pandemic we usually got somewhere between 6% and 7%.

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Figure 2

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The primary reason for anemic growth is the continuing weakness of households鈥� consumption (Figure 3). Before the pandemic, private consumption usually contributed more than 4 percentage points to growth; after the pandemic, we haven鈥檛 experienced that since mid-2023.

Made with Flourish

Figure 3

In turn, the primary culprit here is the tremendous increase in prices since 2022, which dampened spending, especially on food.

While inflation has already dropped to just 1.4% in April (a five-year low), this doesn鈥檛 remove the fact that prices have skyrocketed since 2022 (lower inflation only means that prices are no longer rising as fast as before).

Meanwhile, spending on household items like electricity and water also slowed down, maybe as Filipinos started to cut down on costs, including basic necessities.

On the production side, agriculture continues to be a non-contributor to growth. The biggest contributor is still the service sector, followed by industry, but both these sectors are also considerably weaker than before the pandemic.

Figure 4 below shows the unsettling divergence of the Philippine economy from its pre-pandemic path. The latest data for the first quarter of 2025 only confirms that we鈥檙e definitely on a new path now, and the chances of converging back to the old path are practically nil.

Made with Flourish

Figure 4

Government officials were quick to mention that perhaps the slower-than-expected growth at the start of 2025 has something to do with the 鈥減ersistent uncertainties鈥� around the world (perhaps alluding to US President Donald Trump鈥檚 trade policies).

But remember that Trump did not declare his grand tariff offensive until April 2, which falls in the second quarter of the year. In the weeks before, Trump only mentioned a tariff offensive against Canada, Mexico, and China. If we鈥檙e so sensitive to these pronouncements, I shudder to think what the second quarter growth figures might look like.

The government also pointed out that while our growth trailed Vietnam and tied with China, we 鈥渙utpaced鈥� Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. I鈥檓 not sure comparing ourselves with much more developed neighbors is useful at this point. The more informative comparison would be with Vietnam. Let鈥檚 ask ourselves: why couldn鈥檛 we match the amazing 6.9% growth of Vietnam in the first quarter of 2025? What are we doing wrong, and what are they doing right? (By the way, Vietnam is closer to us in development, but they鈥檙e richer than us now on a per-person basis.)

The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) said in a statement that, 鈥淐atch-up plans for delayed programs must be prioritized post-election, and capacity-building for newly elected officials should be expanded to ensure effective public service delivery.鈥�

But there was no elaboration of why growth was anemic before the midterm elections. Also, they (conveniently?) omitted the fact that the budget shenanigans last year, ultimately approved by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., defunded key infrastructure programs that could have spurred extra growth.

Vote wisely (for the economy)

We need to go beyond spin and hear a more honest assessment of the economy coming from our economic managers. Something clearly broke during the pandemic, and little is happening by way of reforms that could fix the economy especially in the long run.

This brings me to a quick note about the upcoming midterm elections on Monday, May 12. From the economic standpoint, there鈥檚 clearly a lot at stake.

But just judging from the latest survey results of 鈥渟enatoriables,鈥� I鈥檓 not too optimistic that the necessary reforms at the national level will take root. Honestly, what reforms can you expect from the likes of Bong Go, Lito Lapid, Camille Villar, and (god forbid) Willie Revillame?

At this point I鈥檓 not optimistic that we鈥檒l elect the right leaders fit for the job of fixing the economy鈥檚 many ills in the next few years. Of course there are many reasons for our consistently poor electoral outcomes. But at any rate, don鈥檛 be surprised if it takes us a lot longer to catch up with our regional peers. 鈥� [link under review]

`

Eccles Bluebottle,聽 new member writes, quoting Rappler, today at 10:10 am

> "Slowest pre-election economic growth in more than two decades: How come?"

>

> Published MAY 9, 2025 12:47 PM PHT, By JC PUNONGBAYAN in Rappler.

Yes .. thank you for your Rappler quote .. Eccles Bluebottle.

Might suggest taking care quoting Rappler, they have radical-left form.

And your writer JC PUNONGBAYAN has strong form being anti-Marcos.

For one quick example:

Quoting the Wikipedia entry for JC PUNONGBAYAN and for his one book ..

"Punongbayan regularly contributes to public discourse on economic issues through his work as a resident economist and columnist for Rappler. His articles focus on making complex economic concepts accessible ...

Publications:

Books: False Nostalgia: The Marcos "Golden Age" Myths and How to Debunk Them

By JC Punongbayan (Ateneo de Manila University Press, 2023)

Wikipedia notes, "The book examines and challenges popular misconceptions about the Philippine economy during the Marcos regime, providing historical data and economic analysis to counter these narratives."

As one can readily see, he has vested financial-interests in trashing the Marcos family.

Just wondering, as a newby, have you another 九色视频 nickname Fred perchance?

Happy trails

`

Thanks for the info @PalawOne - yes, JC's certainly opinionated, but I鈥檓 focussing more on the data than opinions. Providing of course this data is accurate - I don鈥檛 have any evidence to back this up either way.

And no, I鈥檝e not been active on this forum before - been browsing for a good while, but have just posted, responding to question Steve raised about Wise.

I鈥檓 Aussie, but live in Taiwan, in the far south - about as close as I can get to the Philippines without actually being there! I鈥檝e done quite a few trips to PH - admittedly all prior to Covid - but will be heading back this year.

@Eccles Bluebottle

The government also pointed out that while our growth trailed Vietnam and tied with China, we 鈥渙utpaced鈥� Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. I鈥檓 not sure comparing ourselves with much more developed neighbors is useful at this point

A good reference comparable to the Philippines is Indonesia , a country whose GDP per head (the only meaningful statistic) overtook the Philippines years ago.

Growth figures that increase by a % point or so each year are trivial for a third world country. For the Philippines to escape the 'funk' of underdevelopment it would need to outpace its neighbours by doubling its current growth rate every year for the foreseeable future which would entail structural reforms and a mindset that is wanting. The country fails on just about every economic metric going which I won't belabour here.

Eccles writes: Thanks for the info @PalawOne - yes, JC's certainly opinionated, but I鈥檓 focussing more on the data than opinions. Providing of course this data is accurate ..
I鈥檓 Aussie, but live in Taiwan, in the far south - about as close as I can get to the Philippines without actually being there! I鈥檝e done quite a few trips to PH - admittedly all prior to Covid - but will be heading back this year. - @Eccles Bluebottle

Well, let me be the first to actually welcome you to the forum Eccles.

And being an Aussie, like me, you aren't notably shy in participating.

Haha, on you matey.聽 Hope you can/do contribute often and deeply.

Happy trails

Lotus writes,A good reference comparable to the Philippines is Indonesia , a country whose GDP per head (the only meaningful statistic) overtook the Philippines years ago.Growth figures that increase by a % point or so each year are trivial for a third world country. For the Philippines to escape the 'funk' of underdevelopment it would need to outpace its neighbours by doubling its current growth rate every year for the foreseeable future which would entail structural reforms and a mindset that is wanting. The country fails on just about every economic metric going which I won't belabour here. - @Lotus Eater

Yes, "GDP per head" agree.

Didn't notice the newspaper said "GDP per employed person"

Makes a big difference. Thanks Lotus.

Happy trails

Many thanks @PalawOne - happy to contribute where I can (such as Steve鈥檚 Wise enquiry), but certainly don鈥檛 want to stick my nose in too often on topics I鈥檝e no knowledge/experience of. Very happy to see a range (sometimes wildly so!)聽 of opinions on the forum, but more importantly, a solid base of facts proffered regularly, and most importantly, first-hand experience - many from your good self.

Always interesting, and often entertaining, posts.